Redistricting and the Electoral College: Two Reasons Why Obama May Loose in 2012

Around the media world and blogosphere I incessantly see articles suggesting how Barack Obama has assured a victory in the 2012 Presidential election after his decision to go into Pakistan and kill Osama bin Laden. Now I too, wrote a piece some weeks ago asserting six reasons why he had the inside road to winning in 2012. Although I stand by it, it was written before the raid on Osama bin Laden and more importantly, the actual redistricting of the GOP. Redistricting occurs once every ten years which just happens to be now.

Redistricting efforts will be very important in the 2012 Presidential elections since many states have become Republican dominated since the November 2010 elections which saw sweeping changes in legislations across the nation. The census shift that was documented last year will more than likely hurt Obama in 2012 since people have left traditional blue states for Red ones. Texas is one such case where it is expected to pick up three house seats and electoral college votes while Michigan, a traditional democratic state is expected to lose a house seat. In fact, census data indicate that states won by John McCain in 2009 are projected to gain six seats in congress, meaning states Obama won will lose six. New York and Ohio, also traditional democratic states are expected to lose congressional seats as well.

In North Carolina for example, the Republican-controlled state legislature looks to create new districts benefiting its party and are planning to try to re-draw the districts that would shift power to Republicans statewide by increasing GOP voting strength in non-Black regions. The reality is that November's elections put Republicans in control of dozens of state legislatures and governorships, just as states prepare to redraw their congressional and legislative district maps. Republicans now control the governor's offices and both legislative chambers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Indiana, Maine and Wisconsin. They are governors' in Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia and Iowa.

Those that assert his re-election is assured by the raid on the bin Laden compound are missing or lack the foresight to include the aforementioned and the electoral college on the selection of the Presidency. The Electoral College, administered by the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), is a process that began as part of the original design of the U.S. Constitution. It was established to serve as a compromise between election of the president by Congress and election by popular vote. The political parties nominate electors at their State party conventions or by a vote of the party's central committee in each State and often recognize and are dedicated to their political party first.

Although Obama has a good chance of being re-elected, he may just as likely lose due to the census, gains in republican dominated states and the electoral college. So if he doesn’t win and the projections of pundits based on one political/military event that he would, just remember their failure was due to a lack of knowledge of the constitution and middle school civics.

New Research Shows Black Women With Lighter Skin, Have Lighter Prison Sentence Than Women With Dark Skin

Many African Americans are familiar with the incessant discussion regarding light versus dark skin and the supposed advantages one may have over the other. Ever since Nella Larsen’s novella “Passing,”, in which the main character, Irene Redfield, a light-skinned African American woman passing for white, reveals the hidden implications regarding race, with respect to the perception that being white is better than black and inferior.

A new study just published in in The Social Science Journal (Volume: 48, Issue: 1, Pages: 258-250) called “The impact of light skin on prison time for black female offenders,” may add some evidence supporting the affirmation of Larsen’s premise. The study, conducted by Jill Viglione, Lance Hannon, and Robert DeFina, are researchers at Villanova University. provides strong evidence that lighter skin color is significantly correlated with a lighter prison sentence.

Based on data, collected from the records of 12,158 women incarcerated in North Carolina prisons between 1995 and 2009., inclusive of information regarding inmate hair color, eye color, height, weight, body type and skin tone (light skin tone is assigned a code of 1, and dark skin tone is assigned a code of 0), revealed that with respect to prison sentences, women noted to be of light skin were sentenced to 12% less time behind bars than their darker skinned confederates.

This finding was consistent even when controlling for prior history of incarceration, conviction date, prison misconduct, and body type. Moreover researchers also controlled for if the woman was convicted of homicide or robbery – crimes that have longer sentences. Upon which they also observed that having light skin reduces the actual time served by approximately 11%.

According to the authors as presented in the abstract, “The present analysis extends this line of inquiry by examining how perceived skin tone (assessed by correctional officers) is related to maximum prison sentence and actual time served,” and that their findings “indicated that black women deemed to have a lighter skin tone received more lenient prison sentences and served less time behind bars.”