Wednesday, October 05, 2011

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One thing you can say about us Negroes is that most of us care and know more about the 2-pac sex tape, the Michael Jackson voluntary manslaughter trial and the BET hip hop awards than events that actually have an impact on our present and future lives such as the European sovereign debt crisis.

Not to be sarcastic, but the economic crisis in Europe is tenfold more important and impactful on the lives of African Americans because it directly impact how much money we have in our pockets, more so even than the supposed jobs plan proposed by the president. Like our economy, the major participants in the European Union, mainly Germany, have implemented another temporary fix to stop the hemorrhaging via a new bailout package. We tried a bailout here under Bush and Obama, the second of which resulted in a loss of 2.5 million more jobs and more paper money added to the economy albeit liquidity was never at issue.

In theory, the goal is to calm markets and to isolate the problems of Greece from the rest of the EU and subsequently the rest of the world, most importantly the US. But this can never happen when you add Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy and even France into the mix. The simple truth is no matter how much money stronger European nations throw onto the already massive debt, it will not help and result in more debt, like any pyramid scheme does.

Seeing the unrest in Greece, the demand for additional collateral from Finland and backroom deals that want bankers to take a large reduction of the value of their Greek bond holdings to reduce their national debt, what we may see in the next coming weeks may be more problems for global markets. It hard for at least me to see why hasn’t dumping all of this bailout money on the problem has not resulted in a drop in the credit rating for countries like France and Italy, especially when countries like Venezuela, who have 60 billion or more in surplus, have lower ratings than the aforementioned.

It is apparent that Greece will eventually default and Germany will be put in a position to protect its banks first and for the record, we do not know or at least I cannot discern how much loot French, Spanish and Italian banks have on hand to do the same let alone how much US exposure exist with our big insurance corporations and all. If this does happen, it would not be unreasonable for one to speculate bank failures in Europe leading to a global sovereign debt and banking crisis simply due to not knowing the value of all the varied derivatives and complex papers banks around the world hold.

And back to Germany, if rumors hold true and they reinstate the Mark, debt will continue to accrue because without the existence of a single EU bond, there is no mathematical way to support the massive debt in the EU’s struggling markets. We may see some evidence of such now for just this week we saw France and Belgium guarantee the financing of the troubled cross-border bank Dexia, as its shares plunged just on reports that it will be broken up.

I could go one for days but in simple terms several things are true. The people of the bailout giving nations from Germany to Finland do not want to bail out Greece and other struggling national economies in the union. Second, all that is being done is to the benefit of creditors and foreign investors and not to address the structural impediments at the root of the current crisis. Last, if a bank like Dexia cannot survive, which is the leading provider of local government financing in France, the it will be only a matter of time before other French banks, who currently buffer the crisis nations from the rest of the EU will become insolvent. Why, because the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis and the tensions on the interbank market means that all of the world will have a clear picture of how troubled non-strategic assets weigh on EU banks as a whole regardless of what country they are located in.

I admit I am no economist, just a reader and a free thinker. Math is my tool and although I cannot say who is the rapper of the year, or who is brought out in the Jackson trial, I don’t need too because it does not and will not impact my life more than what I see occurring in Europe. Maybe someone should write a book for me and call it “America for Dummies” to help me out. Or better yet, I should write that book, for only a nation of dummies would pay more attention and be more knowledgeable of pop culture garbage that doesn’t have a real significance on their survival than event that do.

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T,

I have been paying close attention to the Euro crisis. It is an definite hawt mess! With so much speculation going on and the alignment of different nations, it's like a soap opera style political thriller, with deadly economic impact on the global community.

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