Thursday, January 01, 2009

1967 Again, maybe?

As a kid, I recall a little of the Detroit Riot of 1967. I was in Memphis and the flames on the front porch were a lot more visible at the time. It began after a police raid in a predominantly black neighborhood. And although race was significant as well as police brutality, economic, and social factors such as lack of affordable housing, added to the Riot, another one may be brewing in the D-town, if it don’t become a ghost town first. Today may be even worse with the collapse of the big car manufacturers, Ford, Chrysler and GM. Monday, and this Dec 23, 2008 report noting that the average price of a home is now $18,513 (less than a new car) and unemployment has reached 21 percent. Just in June the average home price was $19,448.

In October, 98 metropolitan areas reported jobless rates of at which was up 7.0 percent, up from 16 areas a year earlier, In October, Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., Add to the mix a 21.7% graduation rate for the 11th largest district in the country, Detroit Schools – this may be where the economic crisis first blows up and gets an human face.

Nationally some project that the December's job loss total will exceed November's and predicts the economy will have lost 3 million to 4 million jobs for the two years ending at December 2009. True, I look at it as the glass is half full and with the understanding that there aint no consistent definition of a Depression. The only consistent thing is the presence of long scale and extended unemployment. Im just cautious and with the way things work now: online banking and ATMS. Long lines in hospital emergency rooms because of no insurance and food prices across the country increasing about 7 percent alone in 2008, one doesn’t have to be absorbed with economics to know things do not look too good or that the depression looming will look a lot different than the great depressin. For if it ever gets to where 6 out of 10 households are economically distressed, then something is liable to hit the fan – question is where? So tell me what it looks like in your city.

34 comments:

Kit (Keep It Trill) said...

First, I want to wish you and your family a happy new year, Torrance.

The housing market in and just outside of DC isn't that bad here - yet.

My own interpretation of all the news in 2008 is that 2009 & 2010 will be a disaster for many Americans, unlike anything their grandparents experienced in the Great Depression. My greatest concern is that the collapse of the currency will happen, which oddly would fall in line with those in power who spoke two years ago of forming a North American Union with the Amero as a currency. Because of what they said, including Madeline Albright, I suspect this meltdown is orchestrated.

Nikki Wadley said...

Hello and Happy New Year!

I live in Chicago and what I am noticing is big business is still pretty stable here not including the automotive and banking industries that have been affected nationally. The mom and pop business are barely hanging on without a strong niche and powerful marketing. I am noticing that houses in neighborhoods where the average house costs $800K are sill being built. Either you are poor or you are rich. This is what seems to be happening and I hope that I am wrong.

msladydeborah said...

The conditions have been ripe for civil unrest and true chaos and mayhem.

Things are going to be so rough and so tough. There are folks who are prepared and there are those who are not.

There is no way to know what the worst case scenario will be until it opens up.

RunningMom said...

True that the average price of a home in Detroit is around $19k, but really, Detroit was overpriced for a long time. The taxes are ridiculous (easily 2 or 3 times higher than the suburbs), the city services are poor and even in the "preferred" neighborhoods, people weren't really taking care of their own.

Detroit is a huge city, many of the homes are 50 to 100 years old and most are in disrepair. But there are still little pockets of goodness and thriving communities.

Where you see the most change is in in the worth of a home. I have a girlfriend who when she and her husband purchased a 1940's home similar to the ones in the link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosedale_Park,_Detroit

They were getting a deal at $180k. Now they couldn't sell their home for $60k. So they figure, why keep paying on this mortgage when we can walk away from this house and go purchase something newer and nicer in the suburbs for less?

My thought was why did you think buying a house in Detroit was ever worth $180k in the first place? It wasn't.

You can buy a home in Detroit for $5k, $3k, sometimes less. Lots of investors are buying up properties and neighborhoods. But - go to a suburb 15 minutes north and you are still paying $200 - $300k for a house half the size.

So really - the average price of a home in Detroit might be $19k, but it's not a fair representation of the rest of Michigan. Most of us are still "ok".

If Detroit used non-violent offenders and volunteers to demolish the houses beyond repair, clean up the neighborhoods worth keeping and lower tax rates to be reasonable instead of basically forcing people to the suburbs to save money, they might make a rebound.

We definitely need a new industry. Michigan is such a great state and we have a lot to offer. Lots of movies being made here since Granholm offered incentives and rebates (Gran Torino is the one out now), but I predict it will take 10 years from 2008 for us to see a real rebound and new industries emerge.

I wasn't alive during the '67 riots, but I have heard about them from my parents who were living in Detroit at the time and read about them in books.

I hope it doesn't happen again. I don't think it will.

rainywalker said...

RawDawg,
Things are starting to show around the edges here. It was not pretty in Cleveland during 64-65. Colorado is spread out and poor to start with. But many families are leaving for someplace. 28% housing glut for almost three years. More homeless on the streets inclusing families. The new president needs to try and jump start the poor and middle class. But even some things are beyond his control!

Red Snapper said...

Hapi Nu Year & Hapi Nu U!!!!

My city is lookin rather grim. This state is ranking the highest in forclosures as well as the value of homes is dropping.....quickly.

Mayor Franklin has laid off many city workers and she will also close 12 parks & rec centers. 12, which of course are in low income neighborhoods. That hurts my heart. Since the parks will be closing that leaves our children where? Doing what? It's unfortunate. There are far too many "celebrities" in this city for the children to suffer. Bastards.....

Although I live in a suburb (Union City) I still see the ramifications of the preditory lending as I drive around south Fulton County. Home after home is either boarded up or has a for sale sign in the yard.

I do want to own a home one day for my daughter to have a yard to play and garden, HOWEVER, I'm good in my two bedroom apartment. When something is broken I call the maintenance man. When my trash needs to be emptied, I take it to the compactor. No water bill. No sanitation bill. No taxes.

We're good.....I love life. I love me and those around me. I still walk in light and positivity and I feel that we will get through. Many people have gone through much worse. The Most High guides me and keeps me always.

Signing out from ATL folk......

Kayos said...

Happy New Year to you!!

I don't know if it is because it is Texas but we aren't really seeing the economic downfall Detroit is experiencing. Yes, we do have houses on the market but not a huge increase.

I hope it continues to move but there's no real change. So far :S

CC said...

Things are iffy. I know some people who were laid off and the govenor has/had inforced a couple days furlough for state employees. However, Baltimore, like DC has a lot of federal government workers so employment is steady on that front. As far as I'm concerned the housing market is still over priced and they are doing alot of development in Baltimore.

Urban Thought said...

Happy New Year. I wish you prosperity and good health.

I see a lot more homeless people. A lot more families on the street begging for food and any type of change. These same people have signs saying they have recently lost their homes.

Store traffic has also decreased. Of course, I try to stay far away from it. The only place that keeps as busy as it has in the past would be the barbershop. No matter how hard times hit people still want to look their best.

P_LOCA said...

hey Torrance how are you?
(personally speaking)..it's that rediculous in NYC, the governer plans on making the new yorkers pay tax on non-diet drinks everywhere! ::mean face:::
ok...maybe I need to do my research but I think we have it worst here in NYC. So the governement saying "it will help us" like how again? So if we get regular non-diet drinks we would pay tax on it so more money for them BUT not everybody likes diet drinks ughhhh!!
He also raising the transportation fares..so a monthly pass is already $81 and it will be $105 soon-crazy
We have alot of stores that are closing in malls here...houses for up for sales, people losing their jobs, the unemployeement here is going up and up.
I am greateful for my job and for what I have. Oh we have to spend our money more wisely!
Great post!-like always!

nicki nicki tembo said...

But for the most part it'll be a controlled demolition. Troops being brought home to ensure that. The NORTHCOM mandate will be enforced and we'll see canadian troops working with american troops to quell unrest in those northern states like MI.

Anywho, the two largest hospital systems in KC are facing $20 and 7 million increase in uncompensated care over last years numbers, respectively. Their employees won't see a cost of living increase this year. MO unemployment standing at 6.4%. KC area housing sales down 25% Oct. to Nov. and down 30% from Nov. of last year. Here the avg cost of a new home is $325,000, up 11.8 % from 2007 while existing home prices have fallen 12% to an avg $136,000. The big chill.

Qrazy Info said...

so, in Philadelphia the mayor is trying to close libraries, donations are down for non-profits, although taxes are low for the residents most black families rent their homes. The only people making cash right now are people renting out the properties.

Princess Tinybutt said...

hey dr. t! just wanted to wish my fellow cap a belated bday, an a very happy, warm new year full of love for you and your family.

smoohces!

ptb :)

Lovebabz said...

You asked my why I haven't been over here to post. Well I am moving my heart and mind in a different direction.

As you know I have a fondness for politics and current world events. But my perspective is shifting. I do not have the energy to discern the realities of a shifting political landscape. I remain aware. But My reality is I am more concerned with my heart and soul. I leave the raising of political consciousness to those that have a firm grasp and interest in doing such. You my friend do.

I was once a queen...but now I am merely an earth mother. My focus is on raising children, making a peaceful home and creating wealth. My priority is being a better neighbor and friend. It is for me about helping where I can.

These economic times will of course challenge us in ways that we have not seen before. But I must stand steadfast in being prayerful and return to a meditative state.

I read you everyday and will continue to do so. I will weigh in as I am moved to. You are provocative and thought provoking. You are insightful and self-righteous. You stretch me and I am glad for it.

Keep us informed All-Mi-T.

Happy New Year!

Danielle Ricks said...

Happy New Year!

I know I'm going to be accused of being "out of it" but as bad as things are... and they are most certainly bad... let's make an agreement to raise our consciousness and look for the good in these depressing times. Can we learn anything from the housing market falling out that will help us, our family, our friends or future generations? Is there any lesson to be learned at all?

I project things will get better and I challenge you all to hold this collective idea in consciousness and pray for those who have been negatively impacted by the greed of Wall Street and American big business.

Peace, Love and Light!

Jamal O said...

You already know whats
goin on in tha "A"

Unemployment has always been
a factor if you ever ride down,
juniper behind Django's. They call
that Skid Row I reckon...?

I'm not one to chalk up conspiracy
theories, after all, what good does
theorizing do, When sh*t hits the fan everybody gets Ahem...wet.

But to the peeps saying the meltdown may be orchestrated, given this country's history...All I can say is I understand...

After all, When the former chairman of the NASDAQ runs a 50 billion dollar game by the name of
Charles Ponzi, everyone gets upset..

But Isn't the American Banking system one Big Charles Ponzi scheme
when you think about it?

I dunno... there is something about knowing your money is not actually physically there, yet you get a statement each month saying that is... hmmm sounds strangely familiar...

Well till it changes I guess we ALL play the game

Anyway, Wha the hell do I know,
I'm just an Artist.

Happy New Year Bro!

Keep Head Bangin
J

no_slappz said...

nicki nicki tembo -- always the conspiracy theorist.

Canadian troops entering the US to quell riots in Michigan? Hilarious.

What will people in North Dakota and Montana do? How about the Upper Peninsula of Michigan?

Torrance, the only lesson learned from rioting is that rioting achieves nothing, but does result in a lot of property damage and some loss of life.

Where's the upside?

Detroit was slipping downward before 1967 and has continued to slip since then. Maybe the city is approaching a bottom, and maybe it will get there in a year or so.

If houses are selling for less than $20,000 then people earning very very low incomes can afford them. A mortgage on $20,000 would require a monthly payment of about $100.

Unfortunately, the property taxes on Detroit properties are probably a lot higher than the financing costs.

Meanwhile, government has no control over the eventual fate of the Detroit car companies. They will live or die based on sales of vehicles AND a reduction in benefit costs. Sales must rise and the cost of benefits must fall for the companies to live. Without the presence of both conditions, reorganization through Chapter 11 bankruptcy is inevitable.

Frankly, I think the United Auto Workers should buy GM and run it. At the current stock price, the UAW can buy GM for about $3 billion.

In addition, it might save homeowners if mortgage payments were reclassified as "Tax Credits" rather than "Tax Deductible". That way, homeowners could subtract their mortgage payments directly from their taxes, rather than merely reducing their taxable income by the amount of the mortgage interest.

As for the increase in food prices, well, that may disappear along with the high price of oil. However, the quickest way to cut food prices is to end the subsidies for ethanol. Ethanol production consumes a huge portion of our corn crop, thereby driving up corn prices, which raises the price of beef and related food products.

It might help the economy to relax a number of environmental laws. California would benefit if new power stations were built in the state. It will also benefit from offshore oil drillling.

The US can expand its markets to include Cuba if Obama ends the embargo and attempts to stimulate trade. There is the added bonus that ending the embargo would probably cause Fidel to drop dead, leaving Raul no choice but to oversee the island's transition to capitalism.

Meanwhile, it's starting to look as though parts of the banking system will experience major rebounds in 2009.

MIKE said...

YOU SPOKE ON MY CITY. ITS A GREAT CITY ITS AN INTERNATIONAL WATER WAY CANADA IS 20 MINUTES FROM WHILE I GREW UP.


KEEP IT STREET WE AIN'T BITCHES. WE HOLDING OUR OWN LIKE ALWAYS.

KATS FROM THE BOTTON (AKA THE SOUTH) HAVE TALKED ABOUT MY CITY LIKE A DOG. THESE PEOPLE TALKING BAD ABOUT MY CITY WOULD NOT LAST A DAY. WE ARE NOT MEMPHIS OR ATLANTA WE DON'T SMILE OR GREET YOU. WE DON'T KINDLY TO OUTSIDERS. WE HAVE SOME OF THE BEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD LIVING HERE.



NOT ALL OF US ARE HURTING FROM DETROIT AKA THE D NOT THE " D TOWN WE ARE NOT dallas.


OUR STATE AND IS GREAT. THOSE OF US WITH MONEY ARE BUYING LAND LIKE NO ONE'S BUSINESS. WE HAVE A GREAT WATER.

PEOPLE FROM THE BOTTOM TALK THE MOST SHIT BUT DON'T LIVE HERE. PEOPLE ARE DOING WELL. WE HAVE SOME THE GREATEST MINDS FROM HERE DR. BEN CARSON AMONG OTHERS.


ITS' BIGGER THAN DETROIT. GET READY FOR THE AMERO. BEING FROM DETROIT WE STAY READY FOR WHATEVER.

MIKE said...

WE WILL SURVIVE AND THRIVE WHAT HAS HAPPEN. PEOPLE TREAT MY CITY LIKE SOME SICK LAB EXPERIMENT. HAVE A NEW DRUG TEST IT ON DETROIT?


I FOUND IT FUNNY. I WAS READING THE NEWSPAPER. I TURNED ON THE NEWS TOO SEE PEOPLE ALL ACROSS THE COUNTRY FREAKING OUT. THEY COULD NOT HANDLE WHAT DETROIT AS WELL AS THE STATE OF MICHIGAN HAD BEEN THROUGH. IT MADE ME LAUGH I TALKED WITH A GUY FROM NORTH MEMPHIS. HE ASKED HOW DID I SURVIVE LIVING IN DETROIT?

I ASKED HIM BESIDES STAX RECORDS HOW IN THE HELL DO YOU LIVE IN MEMPHIS? NIGGAS KILL ME WITH THESE CRAZY ASS QUESTIONS.

nicki nicki tembo said...

@ no slappz - I have a tendancy to call spades spades.

no_slappz said...

nicki nicki tembo,

You may call them as you see them, but crazy conspiracy theories are still just that -- crazy conspiracy theories.

Periods of civil unrest might arise, but the US government will NEVER ask Canada to help calm or control Americans. Never.

Maybe if Michigan authorizes casino gambling, Canadians will pile over the border to play the slots and No Limit Texas Hold'em. But that's as close to an invasion as things will get.

Sauce said...

Being FROM the M-Town, you know how it is here. All the factories have relocated and FEDEX is talking about paycuts.

Casper said...

Detroit is my back yard. I was born and raised in Toledo and Detroit. I don't think Detroit will become a ghost town, I really think that more arabs and hindus will relocate there. Generally speaking they are more economically inteligent than the rest of america is, and if the big three close up shop it wouldn't surprise me if the arabs and hindus just buy everything up... cheap. Thats what I would do.

In any depression vast fortunes are made, its the one fact that everyone neglects. In a depression wealth is only transferred. The last great depression took three years to hit the bottom after the stock market crash. If your thinking about buying any wait till about 2011 when things hit the bottom. Thats probably when your gonna get the best deals

PrettyBlack said...

Happy new year as you know or don't, shit who's really keeping up. I've decided to shut down my blog but I will definitely be visiting everyone else. I start back to school on the 19th and changed my major to business management so I have a gang of economics classes and some stats classes to go through and as anyone knows me I am NOT good in math. But if it ain't hard it ain't worth it right? I will keep in touch and you have a blessed and prosperous new year. Much love. Peace. Pray for me and I'll do the same for you.

OG, The Original Glamazon said...

First Happy New Year and I missed you scholar!

The odd thing is now that I am back home it is apparent to me that Houston is somewhat isolated from the recession but I can tell the economy is somewhat slower.

After living in Boston where I can see the impact of the recession, being back home I can tell you that Houston, while recessed, is doing better than many other American cities.

Because of what I have seen living in too different cities I think we a literally looking at the middle class disappear before our eyes. Well the middle class as we know it.

The economy is cyclical and the fact that we are facing another depression is not surprising to me,after all what goes up must come down.

I am interested to find out what kind of wealth will be built during this depression. There are people who are still thriving in this economy and if they make smart moves they can be ahead of the game when we come out of this recession.

-OG

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