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Jobs Report Isn’t Good News as Most Think

This past Friday, the August jobs report was released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. According to the report, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 96,000 in August, and the unemployment rate edged down to 8.1 percent. Specific employment increases were in food services and drinking places, in professional and technical services, and in health care.

Almost automatically, proponents of the Obama Administration as well as political pundits touted this as good news and as being proof of the effectiveness of the President’s economic policy. Unfortunately, few if any political talking heads discussed this in reference to the general citizenry of America or offer that the aforementioned may not be the case.

If one actually takes the time to read the report and do some basic math, they would clearly see that for the average American, the data does not provide such a rosy picture. First, is the obvious observation of that 119,000 fewer persons were employed in August compared to the month of July and that Manufacturing employment edged down in August (-15,000).

The reality is that around 89 million people in America are unemployed and the value of the dollar has started to retract if one pays any attention to the Forex markets. Moreover, Gold is up 3.1 percent and silver is up 7.1 percent when the administration and the Federal Reserve are thinking about another phase of quantitative easing (QE3).

Job loss will continue to be a problem for whoever is in the Whitehouse. In particular with the strange policies of the Federal reserve. Bernanke knew in 1988 that quantitative easing was ineffective work because bank lending channel typically close if banks have access to external sources of funding (other people money). Yet, Bernanke and the present administration continue to advocate that in order to revive economic growth and avert deflation, QE is a necessity.

The jobs reports show that QE only makes the rich richer. In fact the Fed has increased its balance sheet from $900 billion to $2.9 trillion the difference is $2 trillion (or 13% of GDP) while the job report shows that 58% of Jobs Created Pay Only $8 hour or less.

Now I know many will say I am just bashing Obama, that I am jealous of the President and that I just don't know what I'm talking about because the jobs report shows the President is doing a good job.  They may even say that the CBO (Congressional Budget Office), as the Presidents often states supports his economic policies. Unfortunately, on the CBO's track record, I trust them as much as I do a white man with a sheet to have lighter fluid and a match at a BBQ. Let the CBO tell it, from their unrealistic view of this economy, America never goes into a recession. 

Currently, the CBO is assuming a deficit of $3.5 trillion from 2012-2021 and if past history is any indication, they are at least likely off by 60% meaning it is really close to $10 trillion. Recall that just ten years ago, the CBO predicted that the US deficit would be at $7.6 trillion currently, but the actual number as of this week is above the $16 trillion mark. Between 2002 and 2010 all of their real GDP projections were between 2.6% and 2.9%. By overestimating growth, you overestimate revenues, which underestimate the deficit and gives politicians the impression they have more of our money to spend before they get into trouble.

Last week at the DNC, Obama suggested that he would cut the deficit but strongly asserted he would use money saved from the wars to reduce the deficit, which is strange since that money doesn’t exist since the war is being paid for by borrowed money mainly from China. All of this seems to be ignored when discussing the economy and the jobs picture, but what can one expect, for only by American math can you have 119,000 Fewer Employed in August than July and unemployment rate go down.

Why Double Digit Unemployment Is the Future for America

Politics can be reduced to a game of he said she said with the gender specific pronouns being replaced by the nouns Democrats and Republicans. This is certainly clear with the debate on unemployment. Both parties have been successful at taking the focus away from the real issue, which is unemployment, choosing instead to focus on the fake issue — extension of benefits for the unemployed.

Neither side of the aisle has addressed unemployment outside of name calling and bickering. The real question, which neither the Republicans nor the Obama administration is asking, is where do 8.4 million jobs that were lost come from and what is required to be done for the younger generation entering the job market to also have jobs?

The fact is that no program can make up for the loss of that many jobs, so America will have to get accustomed to double digit unemployment. Although many accept the government's projected figure of around 10 percent for unemployment, I have calculated it to be more like 25 for the general population. Which means if it is that high for the general population, the 16 percent propounded to represent the unemployment rate for African Americans is really closer to 35 percent.

The way unemployment figures are calculated currently, military, college students, part-time workers and seniors are not included in the statistics. As it stands, the economic downturn has hit the African American community harder than any other group. This was also true during the Great Depression when we also were impacted disproportionately.

New data shows that the median duration of unemployment is higher today than any time in U.S. history and is really is more than twice as high today than any time in the last 50 years. The reason is a function of two main components: the loss of jobs to cheap labor abroad and the impact of technology on society.

Many jobs over the last 50 years have been eliminated due to technology. No longer are men required to dig ditches, package or can food items or man gas stations. No longer do we focus on creating and manufacturing as in past decades but rather bartering our services. Obama's solution as a function of the observed 1.5 dip recession, is to institute a large-scale national jobs program that would have the government pay these wages directly. The Republicans on the other hand have no specific policy directive. Both of these approaches are equally ineffective and miss the problem completely.

The new American job market will be one filled with temporary hiring and part-time employment. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can institute any policy to change the future landscape of the American job market because of the impact that technological advancement plays in increasing the ranks of the unemployed.I said it before and I will say it again, there is no such thing as a jobless recovery.

Thought Amnesty - 10-9-09

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Slim Thug Feels the Recession
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Ron Paul Interview

No end in sight

I feel bad for the next President with respect to our current economic prospective. I know I wrote and said this last year back in January of 2008, but the problem today from then, albeit just 12 months ago is five fold. Back then, we didn’t have a bailout for Wall Street banks which all them dumb azz senators (including Obama) signed off on and passed under the auspices that it would “fix our economic woes” - a bailout that gave these financial institutions approximately 50% of the United States GDP, without any strings attached or requirements supposedly to “free up credit markets.”

From his eloquent statements, I was under the opinion that Mr. Obama would not support the “reckless spending” that was reflective of the last 8 years – but his actions indicate otherwise. Obama talks about reigning in spending but his policies after reading are just as, if not even more reckless. Although I say this, I am inclined to give the President-Elect the benefit of the doubt. But things are drastic and not just from last January, but even more than when he was elected in November.

America's largest aluminum maker, the Pittsburg-based Alcoa, said it will cut 13 to 15,000 jobs. Makes me wonder what other raw materials companies will follow suit? Add to that the recent announcement that Airplane maker Boeing Co. plans to cut about 4,500 jobs; the announcement earlier this week that the drugstore chain Walgreens Co., will cut 1,000 jobs; data-storage company EMC Corp. (Boston) said it will cut 2,400 jobs; Logitech International (makes computer peripherals) and has offices in Fremont, California, expects to let go about 3,500 employees; and managed care provider Cigna Corp. announced it will be laying off 1,100 employees. Add to the aforementioned that Schlumberger Ltd. (oilfield services) plans to cut 1,000 jobs in North America and the rumor that Microsoft will reduce its workforce by 17% (15,000 workers), there seems to be no sight in end. Not to mention that down in these parts Georgia-Pacific may reduce its total workforce by some 25%.

I just hope that his desire to be seen as a moderate or centrist doesn’t reduce his ability to give us folks what we need for economic prosperity. The nation's unemployment rate got to 7.2 percent in December, and based on Labor Department's report, it is only going to get worse for President-elect Barack Obama. My concern is both pragmatic and rhetorical. His focus for Congress to "act boldly and act now," will just be a short-term fix and will not do ANYTHING to end the recession – it will be a while before this is over. Not to mention that his approach on taxes in contradict his own objectives (providing more discretionary income for middle-class families). Because if such was his desire, he would see that middle-class tax cuts amount to more loot than planned taxes for folks making more than $250,000 annually. All I am saying is that true, we need to take urgent and significant measure to deal with the economy, but they need to be reasoned and pragmatic. Taxing folks over 250k will only in my logic, make them move loot overseas to safe havens. If they were allowed to keep more of their loot, they would most likely save more, invest more, making more loot available for lending and more jobs. I don’t know where he got this advice from, I hope not Robert Rubin, who just resigned from being the head of CitiGroup ($20 Billion in losses last year). Whatever the case, things are bad, robberies are increasing and I am sure homeless shelters are becoming over-crowed nationwide. But then again, what do I know, its all speculation on my half. God Speed Mr. Obama, God speed.

the vultures are circling

I was trying not to write until, or post until Thursday and I had some tight stuff too. But as yawl know I be on my loot and have spent most of this day transferring funds to locations overseas. First of all, give me my props, I have been talking about the future financial gloom for the past 2 years. I have also said that neither Obama nor McCain talked about such and when they did, they seemed to sound like first graders trying to outline the quantum mechanical principle formulated by Wolfgang Pauli in 1925 in his exclusion principal.

I mean, although yawl say Im boring, I have been trying to warn yawl for a while. But I recognized such was not as important as discussing lil wayne, Brittney Spears or Kanye West to many.

Briefly, in September of last year I spoke of the decline in the value of the dollar. Then in December I wrote about the 500 Billion folks appropriated on the Omnibus Appropriations Bill. In January I wrote about how the economy was gone be in shamble for whoever the next president was gone be. Later that same month I wrote about the fucked up fundamentals involved, or should I say thinking regarding passing a 150$ billion economic emergency rescue bill in an attempt to stimulate the economy. To me it was like giving a blood transfusion to a dead man. I even suggested like the Roman empire, whose economy really caused its demise, so would be rthe future of this country.

In March I started to drop game on the lame. I stated how important it was to have money outside of the US in places like say Seychelles. Especially given how our export trade deficit was approaching 60 billion annually. In April I had finally gotten the chance to read McCain’s, or what McCain called an economic plan and I wasn’t impressed. I also talked about another sign, of countries like Iran switching from the dollar to the Euro for pricing petroleum and oil. As well as the first on a few post on the Yuan and its impact on the dollar and china on our economy.

In May I took it a step farther suggesting the possibility of within two years, that the price of Crude Oil will be hovering around $200 a barrel. In June it was getting worse so I suggested in a post for folks don’t be surprised if the next war will be hear with folks running up peoples cribs stealing grits, gas and tuna fish. Followed behind how for me it was a recession and that only those in the future who were gone eat would be those who paid themselves and grew they own food.

In July I wrote about how our economy had not been this bad since the 20s and 30s, since now we have a domestic financial debt of more than 20 trillion dollars, with a national debt of 350% of our GDP. Especially since the government seems to think the constitution said we the corporation instead of we the people.Then I went on to talk more about my concerns with China and how the housing market aint been this bad in 70 years. And how it aint all on the government cause we common folk spend instead of save. Dont even add how we were being bought up by foreign countries and ten banks failing this year alone, one could see, from this minds purview, that the writing was on the wall.

This is why I am very rigid on both McCain and Obama. McCain, is likely the most false and stupid. Yesterday folk said the fundamentals of the economy is sound, to quickly follow with pointing fingers (which a leader does not do). I cant see anyone letting him get away with this, seeing he has 7 houses and his wife is one of the big whigs that makes loot off of such reckless behavior.


We cant keep bailing out the rich. It is not sound economics. And we dont have enough loot thanks to two wars and wasteful spending on Behalf of the past eight years, Of George Bush and deregulation started by Clinton - and throw in some international trade agreements.
What will be next? Well don’t sleep, Qatar and the Emirates and Saudi and yes, China is in the back ground like Vultures in the sky, ready to buy up all the waste of the Greenspan, Bernake, Bill Clinton and Regan and Bush crews fucked up. Like I said folk , this is only the beginning jones. Goldman Sachs Group quarterly profit plunged 70% over the last quarter alone. And before tomorrow, the Feds will likely give some bridge funding to keep Insurance Giant AIG solvent. And Don’t be surprised if WAMU and Wachovia be next this week. So look in the sky, no it aint falling, but the Vultures are circling. And don't forget, I told you so. Giess you can take a horse to water, but you can't make them drink. Unless they drinking an Interview with R Kelly on BET. vote

Body Blow, Body Blow, Body Blow

Yo, I must admit, in grad school I played video games, Madden and this boxing shit. What I remember about the boxing game was that when u would hit folk, it would say stuff like “body blow, body blow, head shot, body blow.” I like-ed that shit.

I am reminded of this because I feel that it is the perfect introduction to our economic concerns as we are all citizens of the united states of America, now true, I was gonna post on something I wrote this morning called “WORK HARD AND DONT COMPLAIN.” But after reading the comments to the previous post by the scholarly Jay MidNite, Kelso (and he has interest) and No slappz, I digress. Again, blame my pons, and throw in the sulcus of my medulla oblongata and my subsequent Glossopharyngeal nerve anatomy (in picture) while u at it.

Mane, Jones here love him some loot. And as a person that has adapted capitalism for his own well being, I take pride in using brain cells to do such, just as much as I do showing love to others. But it seems as if my economy don’t got no love for folk no more. I have personally documented several contusions to my efforts to accrue capital albeit I will not be denied.

First, the housing market is basically a bust, and it aint been this bad in 70 years. As of date houses prices have dropped maybe 15 to 20 percent in real terms and its only just beginning. Before it is all over, if you pate 100 stacks for a crib, it may end up being worth 70 stacks. Add to that the credit crunch which I figure is the worse since the post war period thanks to Sir Alan green hornet, I mean Span – which I wrote about a few weeks ago. I mean when folk loose a trillion dollar globally, it makes me think that one is in serious trouble; and don’t trust what am mother fucking bankers say. Then there are oil prices coupled with equity dropping like its jumping out an airplane. Just tell me that we got to work a lot longer to buy gas, let alone a barrel of oil. So as jay said, it dont matter, Europe at 10$ a gallon and we gon finally reach the rest of the developing world -yawl aint ready though.

The strange thing to me is that households are paying interest rates no different than in the past. Sure we just got some stimulus checks, but they will only last and benefit one quarter – the second. Yep, it is good; I mean a 100 billion for one quarter but when it is gone what happens next?

All I am saying, and Jones here aint no economist, but rather a single man that like saving and counting money, for money is to make money and not to spend. We don’t even contribute to global GDP growth, but rest assure, the rest of the world does when we cant and will move alone.

The US has weakened for past to years when the rest of the world has shown increased growth and in most cases accelerated economic growth. Europe, Japan, China, and don’t add Arab countries. Not to scare yawl living like life is all that, my query is if the rest of the world can find economic growth, why cant we folk? Cause all I’m seeing and feeling is body blow, body blow, head shot and body blow.

recess is on

Point of order: 1] Putting a stone in my bed does not make u my friend – Damu Proverb. [I say this because some folk, who have put stones in my bed, expect me to be appreciative of them and their stones. I am not.]

2] Read this over my folk spot (beautiful souls of black sisters) the other day, I bet a lot of momma’s (if u can call them that) ask men, even married ones, to sponsor or take care off or support their daughters – dang.

My folk stopped by the shop when I was getting it set up about a month ago. The conversation, tersely, went something like this:

Folk: Jones, whad up? Whad up with the mean mug?

Me: Gave bald fist dap as a precursor to a hug, pulled back and showed him my mouth.

Folk: Jones, not the no teeth mode, real raw dawg. You subject to mack a hundred babes and shoot at a few mutha fucas (he laughed).

Me: Jones, loot. 40 stacks up in this camp. For real though, kids got to eat. I aint studying no babes, if they want me find me, and fuck a mutha fucka. Recess is on Jones.

Yep, this conversation was the impetus for this title. Now what did folk here mean by this statement? I am gone try to explain. See Jones here got no loot coming in at all. Sure done inked a few contracts for a few 100 stacks over three years, but they don’t start until November. Outside of that, just this store for dogs, and my savings albeit they are hefty. And I got my kids, not to mention another human liability. Meaning I gotta eat and they gotta eat and we neck bone pimpin plus up in this camp (prime rib last night and pot roast today).

Currently there is a recession in effect in America; regardless of what these cranial constricted and teleprompted bitch azz media pundits be telling yawl. At least by the economic indicators I follow (payroll, employment, industrial production, real personal income and, real manufacturing). Not to mention something I wrote about a few months ago regarding how traditionally when gold, and oil rose, so did the dollar – but not any more. Not to mention folk here was raised on John Kenneth Gailbraith.

As such from my standpoint, there is no better time to start a business than now, for as I have suggested in prior essays, in the future, outside of growing your own food, the only folks that will be able to eat are those that will be able to pay themselves – sleep if you want to.

I mean it is a down economy. Real-estate prices are flat, not to mention there are normally about 5 start up businesses for each start up Idea. I got lucking picking a store for dogs and locating it in the number one dog concentrated area in the city of Atlanta. Especially given that the top two disposable income industries in the country are Porn and dogs Dog food and porn are recession proof), and folk here don’t have a video camera. But again don’t sleep, horse man production will kick off soon, just need some volunteers-lmbao.

But like I said, it can be done, in particular if you don’t require no venture capital, and got your own loot like folk here. Moreover, even if you are starting a business without intellectual property rights (microchip patten for example), now is still a great time. Especially is you aint got no job security - which no one has. The way I see it, with my store for dogs, im with the ToyRus, KFC, Home depots and the like which started off as an Ideal. But I wont get greedy, for now all the folks closing shops. The Layne Bryants, Gaps, Linen and Things. Cause they wanted to make moey by openeing more stores, which looks good on paper, but an empty package because sales dont match.

So I just say this to suggest. Back in the day we had recess, you know kickball, four square and pick up and run. Now schools dont. Recess is on for us now in this economic lull. A lull that proffers the perfect opportunity to make a decison to do for self instead or talk. Scared say ya scared. Im not. Im with the old school, the family business school. Im leaving not only loot and land to my seeds, but also a legacy. Meet my CFO (son) and COO (daughter). With their help, we will create our own reality.