Now I will be the first to say I aint no investment banker nor am I an economist, but I read and don’t consider myself to be a stupid mother fucker. There are several things about the economy I want to point out. First, all of this shit has happened under the watch of republicans and all these chump bitch ass folk wanna do is put a band-aid on an amputated leg. And hate to say it, But Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG is only the beginning of what is to come. I remember recently how Paulson said that the problem that we have is because “We have an archaic financial regulatory structure that came in place a long time ago, after the Depression. It really needs to be rebuilt."
From my understanding of history, the problem during the depression was stocks. Yep stocks, for back then they were not regulated as they are today. In the current economic picture, we got to deal with some other thangs, namely hedge funds and derivatives, which are a lot more complex and no where close in resemblance to the classic stock or bond. But like in the depression era when stocks went unregulated, today derivatives and hedge funds and what they call credit default swaps, can be bought and sold and packaged without ANY federal or state regulation (yawl economist and investment genius correct this layman if I am wrong).
No regulation, nada. And we came to this like I have said in many post before, due to many folks, but one I have yet to mention is Former Senator Phil Gramm. Yea, yawl know Jones, he said that Americans were whinning over the economy. He currently is McCain’s economic advisor and I must say with him at the helm, I can only see the economy getting worse. A few post ago I wrote about how he led efforts to pass the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999, which served to reduce government regulations in that separated banking, insurance and brokerage activities that had been in place since the Great Depression. But more importantly to jones here was his role in getting the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 passed.
Now let me tell yawl about this. True, he is the VP of USB, a Swiss bank and one should expect such, but this was some sneaky and scandalous shit folk pulled mane because it made specific provisions that products offered by banking institutions would not be regulated as futures contracts – no regulations by feds or state governments, like stocks before great depression.
That’s another reason I say McCain is stupid, for picking a man who is the VP of a bank with 12 billion in losses last year as his top economic advisor and because McCain himself say he is learning economics by reading Alan Greenspan’s book – LMBAO. Not to mention Gramm aint write it but rather it was drafted by Wall Street lawyers. They do this shit via what are called structured investment vehicles and this shit aint even on the balanced sheets.
With the aforementioned and they way they keep they books, via Gramm’s help, we will never know what the actual losses are or will be. Add to that the way they cover this stuff is through another shady side bet called credit default swaps which are “expressly” deregulated via the Act mentioned above. Credit default swaps are the most widely traded form of credit derivative. They aint nothing but bets between folk on whether or not a company will default on its bonds. This is easy to do cause all the banks been doing is giving out mortgages for homes, bundling them up as securities and selling them to others
All I am saying is what we are seeing with Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and AIG is only the beginning because these are based on faulty MBS. Next its gonna be credit cards, student loans and all loans – even private equity loans (corporations). Yep the fat lady aint even started to sing yet and we the tax payer got to pay for this and get the shaft with no Vaseline because the feds will bail these folk out and let the CEOs leaves with 100 millions and even pay for big company but not folk who loose their homes.
All I am saying is handle yours because it WILL get worse. But yawl don’t hear me though, but I bet you getting your toes done, smelling the microwave pop corn and talking about what you eating and dranking at some fancy retro chic Bar. Not me mane. Not me. Like I said, the fat lady aint even started singing, so I would advise you to stuff your mattress, at least a little at a time. vote
164 comments:
Ah well said...even without tequila.
I will spare you my usual diatribe...until later. LOL!
You have certainly given us a great deal to ponder and for many to act upon. I am with you...have take precautions. The writing has been on the wall for 8 years.
I look foward to the continuing discussion of loot and how both parties will fail Americans.
how wise you are.
stuffing my "tic" as we speak...I mean as i type.
i'm watchin the news, Fox5, how they tellin folk to "take a deep breath & leave your money where it is" (in ref to these banks goin down) and me & hubby just started cussin. we been sayin it's gonna get worse before it gets better. i'm chillin folk. i know a recession when i see one.
food for thought. no worries though, i'm cooking no fancy restaurants for me. lol...
Sounds like some wise words...and great advice to me...I recieve that!
Before I stuff my mattress, could i buy 4 more pairs of shoes first?
scary....
Yo, NWO. One Wold Bank....
Folk, you aint said nothing but a word as my mother woke me up to the news that WAMU just put itself up for sell and I got three fucking accounts with them. Im going to have to go with an all cash system cause Im not 100% on FDIC...not regular ol' me, not when the six and seven figure folk matter more. Mattress stuffing is next...please believe it.
School 'em. Share the knowledge and let folk know what's to come man.
I've been keeping cash in the home, not exactly the mattress, for some time. I'm not going to get caught out there to find out that my bank has collapsed and the fed is doing nothing to replace my insured money (would that really happen?).
yes, I know all this. I have a friend who works at SEC and she says you don't even hear half of what is going on. If Americans had any gumption at this point, there'd be another revolution. Hopefully November elections will be a start to that.
Well as always you spitting that truth even without the tequila.
I truly believe we are in for some tough times, the question is just how rough is it going to get. I will be honest and say the old fashioned cash economy is starting to look good to me.
Torrance I could barely get past the "dick hard food" damn you have a way with words!
Anywho...I've known all along that economically things would be getting worse. It is stressing me out trying to prepare with limited resources. Did you know that I am now looking for a 3rd job??? Sad isn't it?
BTW...No Tequila and you still managed to write a good one...that's great Good Doctor ;-)
torrance,
Your post was primarily emotional and lacking in facts.
Meanwhile, you predicted the sky would fall.
It won't.
As far as history goes, you said stocks were unregulated. Half true. The Securities and Exchange Commission was formed in 1934.
You focused on the stock market when you commented on the 1920s, 1930s and today. But the issue today is in the DEBT market. Not the stock market. However, the result of credit/debt problems is seen in evaporating stock prices.
Meanwhile, at the start of the 1930s there were over 30,000 banks in the US. Today there are about 8,000 banks and 2,000 Savings & Loans. But the population of the US has more than doubled since the 1930s.
During the Great Depression there was no FDIC to protect depositors from bank failures. Therefore, millions of Americans lost a lot of their savings when their local banks collapsed.
Since then economists have debated FDR's actions. Plenty of credible economists claim FDR's policies prolonged the Great Depression.
Anyway, despite your claim, we are not heading into another Great Depression.
Bottom line: too many individuals made the decision to gamble on real estate.
Lovebabz
thank u sister
fly tie
thank u as well hon
Blog Queen
i aint mad
Big Cheekz
I COULD NOT AGREE MORE
T.Allen-Mercado
ME EITHER
Keisha "Kitten" Isaacs
i just hope more do
Q
it depends if u can put them in your gas tank or eat them
Traycee
in deed tht u kicked me to the curb
Thic Flair
and we aint talking about wrestling
Lina
im with ya folk
Urban Thought
im trying
NoRegrets
would love to be a fly on their wall
blackgirlinmaine
LOL HOW LONG WILL CASH HAVE ITS VALUE
Tera
thanks madam lol sorry to distract u
no_slappz
I explicity said n o thing, i just said you can expect more dont u agree.
and make up you mind when i wrote about debt accrued by financial sector a few months ago you said I was wrong, so now you
and i didnt say we were heading into a great depression, i just pointed out how under recenet republican administyrations, we got this way - DEREGULATION
and for the record, are you saying thagt like in the depression era when stocks went unregulated, today derivatives and hedge funds and what they call credit default swaps, can be bought and sold and packaged without ANY federal or state regulation am i wronmg?
Good stuff, brotha. I think cracking down on predatory lenders and tightening up usury laws are going to be part of the next civil rights movement.
And coming from Texas, I know first-hand that Phil Gramm ain't bout sh*t and never gonna be sh*t. We don't want to go back to the days when he was actually involved in government.
torrance,
The deregulation that is key to the current problems occurred when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed.
The repeal of Glass-Steagall occurred in 1999 -- under Bill Clinton.
These financial issues are not the result of party politics.
Anyway, when you claim "there is more to come", you are saying there is more bad news coming that will take the economy down further.
That means you think the sky is falling. The open-ended nature of your bad-news scenario AND your mention of the 1930s suggests you are equating the severity of today's troubles with the Great Depression.
Like I said, if ALL home-buyers were required to cough up 20% downpayments, none of this would be happening. But federal regulators do not control that aspect of lending.
I think you misunderstand the concept of regulation in financial markets.
When the SEC wass formed in the 1930s some rules were established. But the rules do NOT control stocks or bonds themselves. It is possible to issue worthless stocks and bonds. The Dot.Com era proved that.
Much of the regulation involves disclosure. The Dot.com businesses were described in detail in their prospectuses when they went public. Thus, buyers of those stocks were told in extreme detail about the ultra-high risk of those stocks.
Credit derivatives are also described in extreme detail in the documents that accompany them. But they are NOT sold to the general investing public.
Anyway, there are NO regulations that can encompass everything. If the government issues regulations about credit derivatives, creative thinkers on Wall Street will devise new products that are outside the bounds of the regulations.
There is always a legal path around regulations. Thus, investors have to be vigilant. Regulators are NEVER smarter than everyone else.
Well, in the long time this will strengthen the financial sector, but I agree with you it will be a minute. The weaker banks will fold or be bought and we might truly be looking at the Bank of America if Wachovia and WAMU tank and get bought like it seems they will. The Feds have no choice but to bail out these guys. My problem is there should be more Main Street bailing than Wall Street bailing. Because many Americans just wanted to have that dream and when the banks started banking on the better times and allowing C&D paper to hold LARGE credit with them, this ain’t no secured $500 limit Visa we talking big jumbo sized house loans on A.R.M.’s and shyt just bullshyt all the way around. All part of our need it now mentality, back in the day when you were credit worthy for a home you would work with a broker to improve your credit and get to a point where you really understood your fiduciary responsibility as a home owner.
No what do we do we see people getting rich of the C&D paper and invest in the house of cards. I do think some bail outs of these greedy bastards will be necessary, but so will the bailout of homeowners who were also somewhat failed by thinking they had been properly vetted to be homeowners by the institutes lending them money. (pun intended) No surprise looking at how the republicans vet VP candidates.
Anyway, I have been blessed through this tough economic time however I understand my favor is to be shared and I continue bless others with my blessing in these lean times.
Here’s the thing that really bothers me, the government is slow to bail out the auto industry and help save some of the thousands of blue collar jobs in an industry that has provided for millions of minority families (and whites) to move up on the economic fence. However the minute the paychecks of many of our top earning white collar professional workers in jeopardy we don’t even wait a whole day to play Captain Save a Ho. I mean I know there are reasons far to numerous to discuss here, but it just rubs me the wrong way. Why not save the middle class and bail out the automakers so those workers could pay there mortgages and buy food instead of putting them in unemployment lines. Not that I wish ill to anyone but I bet the avg AIG worker has a little emergency fund and cushion than those auto workers trying to get a leg up.
Just to be fair the former AIG said today he lost he TOTAL net worth after he built the company up to the powerhouse it was before this. Anyway great post as usual.
Thanks for shooting the flare out for me, I've been reading just no time to really weigh in with any substance. But KNOW I always see ya shining over here!!
-OG
blackink
so true, thanks folks
no_slappz
Do u read anything i write or just comment: in prior post [the vultures are circling] What will be next? Well don’t sleep, Qatar and the Emirates and Saudi and yes, China is in the back ground like Vultures in the sky, ready to buy up all the waste of the Greenspan, Bernake, Bill Clinton and Regan and Bush crews fucked up.
On March 15, 2008 I wrote [My 2 cents (really $11,071.27)] What I anticipate next is that Banks and Brokerage houses (one in the same since Clinton abrogated Glass-Stegall), which have already been hit hard by the sub prime lending practice and home mortgage losses, are not going to being seeing the good times any time soon. Since August of last year, the U.S. government has given financial institutions nearly a trillion dollars and things have yet to improve. Now the Federal Reserve Bank is getting into the act and is talking bout allowing banks/brokerage houses to exchange mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) for about 200 billion in Treasury bonds. Talking about shooting dice, I mean, the have never accepted MBSs as collateral before – not to my knowledge. This will make the FR a holder of long-term credit risk. I figure the FR doesn’t need t do this for it is the financial and lending institutions that need to make corrections on their practices and get their shit tight.
So I dont see your point, are you instructing me on what I instructed u on, and your response then was:
OG, The Original Glamazon
well said, a time back i wrote a piec called [ we the corporation] the need to bail out the small man instead of the criminals - now that would be self correcting and free market esque, but we becoming like Argintna and the countries we say we disagree with - socialist.
WELL WHEN SHE SANGING....LOL
i don't give a fuck cuz i dont got no say in any of the shit no way the government is gonna keepin shaming everybody again and again cuz when the shit hits the fan they're escape pods are ready to go
i say we burn this motherfucker down
in your opinion whats ya best book bra?
oh and that vote link aint working bra
This is all frightening to me...I'm not sure exactly what to make of it all.
1 teq 2 teq 3 teq FLOOR!~
YUMMY
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"Thic Flair said...
Yo, NWO. One Wold Bank...."
Ain't it good to have something to believe in?!
There's this phrase they use during childbirth to describe that feeling you get when that big head is stretching through your vulva. It's called the "ring of fire." You have to endure it, but after that you get something so beautiful.
So no, the fat lady ain't sung yet, she's just in labor, still pregnant with prophecy!
I do fear things will get bad, it doesn't help the media loves trying to scare the hell out of us every five seconds from the economy to the dangers of band aids and soda.
I got my passport on hand just in case I need to roll up to Canada.
------
Like I said, if ALL home-buyers were required to cough up 20% downpayments, none of this would be happening. But federal regulators do not control that aspect of lending.
There wouldn't be many homeowners at all if that were the case. I am a homeowner who hasn't defaulted on my home loan, but dang it, my concern came over the fact they would let anyone get a loan for any amount. Me and my husband when we bought our home was approved for loans for houses WAY out of our price range. We were in our 20's, making decent money, but not good enough money for a half a million dollar home, but we were getting approved for loans all the live long day.
-------
My problem is there should be more Main Street bailing than Wall Street bailing. Because many Americans just wanted to have that dream and when the banks started banking on the better times and allowing C&D paper to hold LARGE credit with them, this ain’t no secured $500 limit Visa we talking big jumbo sized house loans on A.R.M.’s and shyt just bullshyt all the way around.
You ain't never lied. I know so many people who did ARMs to get their homes and their house payments tripled. I was scared of ARMs, I held out for traditional loans. We need to bail out all of these unemployed, about to be unemployed people working for these failing banks.The people who just lost their homes and their jobs. Hell pay off my student loan and a credit card bill or two, I would be happy to let the government do that.
Here’s the thing that really bothers me, the government is slow to bail out the auto industry and help save some of the thousands of blue collar jobs in an industry that has provided for millions of minority families (and whites) to move up on the economic fence. However the minute the paychecks of many of our top earning white collar professional workers in jeopardy we don’t even wait a whole day to play Captain Save a Ho
This is so on point, no one gave a damn about off shoring when it was manufacturing and blue collar type work, now that it is IT, engineering, and accounting professionals, we are getting concerned.
Not that I wish ill to anyone but I bet the avg AIG worker has a little emergency fund and cushion than those auto workers trying to get a leg up
Don't be on it, I've worked in the insurance industry for years, the file clerk isn't making enough money to have an emergency fund, and their benefits aren't nearly as free or nice as the higher ups.
im glad you're keeping up with this
but the bailout they gave for aig was amazing
they said it was the largest bailout in history
our standard of living is going to go tremendously down and its already happening
we are turning into a third world country where there is the have nots the haves and the have mores
what we need to figure out is how we get the money back from these rich fat cats who are whoarding the taxpayers money and just raping the citizens of their wealth
i would really love it if a group of 1000's of pissed off people rip their mansions down and take our wealth back from them
those greedy bastards
i would love to learn how they do it
Well spoken...but um, I love brie cheese and black olives...lol.
So are you saying that like McCain originally said, you don't believe that the US should be bailing out companies like AIG and that like Reagan used to say is that the difference between us and the communists is our right to fail? Or are you saying as McCain later said that the finance industry is too great a subject to allow to collapse and that to allow companies that large to go under is to allow the country's economy to collapse and thereby bring a greater hardship to the tax payer?
I like what you say. I like the idea of holding on to your own and taking care of it, but if people were to take their money out of the economy by stuffing mattresses, wont that decrease the amount of money that will be out their to lend to people and businesses. Again, wont ordinary people then suffer?
Now if you tell me that companies should not be allowed to get so large that 4 or 5 companies can control the fate of the nation, I'll be for it. If you tell me that the SEC or someone else should regulate all trades, derivatives and or other transactions in order for everyone to know what is going on I'll be for it. If you are telling me that people like Stan O'neal who walk away with a $40 million package after leaving Merril Lynch into a shithole should be punished or at least accountable to the shareholders, then I'm all for it. But since neither party will be interested in doing any of these things what can be done???
Thats real talk. Keep keeping it as real and raw dawg!
And all this without Tequila or Hot Sauce...
You are certainly one smart [albeit] dangerous Brotha!
If folk are stuffing their mattresses they better pray their house don't burn down [not saying that the GOVERNMENT would do that...]
Thanks for the info, you are always on point, with or without Tequila!
Torrance, this was a great post! I am particulary concerned about our economic system. I agree McCain does not have a clue, and I wish Obama would hit hard with his specifics.
On a side note I think I am going to dedicate a small piece of our backyard to growing food again.
Very well said!
Hey Man, whats up!!! How you been? :)
torrance, you wrote:
"What will be next? Well don’t sleep, Qatar and the Emirates and Saudi and yes, China is in the back ground like Vultures in the sky, ready to buy up all the waste of the Greenspan, Bernake, Bill Clinton and Regan and Bush crews fucked up."
If the result of Greenspan Bernanke era had been "waste" as you said, there is NO chance foreign buyers will offer real money for it.
If you think foreign buyers pay money for "waste", you must think Qatar, the UAE and China are run by total idiots.
As I've said -- but no one else will -- the biggest abusers were people who took big mortgages without making big downpayments.
Who failed? The people who defaulted on their mortgages. That's who! The buck stops with them. Actually, the buck STARTS with them, and is passed through several hands, including the tax-man and then sent back into the economy.
You wrote:
"What I anticipate next is that Banks and Brokerage houses (one in the same since Clinton abrogated Glass-Stegall), which have already been hit hard by the sub prime lending practice and home mortgage losses, are not going to being seeing the good times any time soon."
You wrote that statement while Bear was collapsing. What's happened since? Lehman collapsed. No help coming from anywhere, but after its collapse Barclay's BANK (it is a bank and a brokerage firm) offered $2 billion for a piece of the business -- which is not "waste."
Again, Bear got a LOAN from the government. Lehman got nothing. Merrill was BOUGHT by Bank of America (it too is a bank and a brokerage firm). Merrill is not "waste." Merrill's shareholders are getting $50 billion from Bank of America.
China may BUY 50% of Morgan Stanley. Or Wachovia might BUY Morgan Stanley. The buyers believe they will pay a bargain price. They believe the real value is far higher than today's price. I am sure they are right.
Meanwhile, only 11 banks -- small banks that took big risks -- have failed this year. That's nothing.
There are over 8,000 banks in the US and only a handful have had problems. But, people who read the headlines think the sky is falling.
AIG got a LOAN from the government. The LOAN will permit the orderly sale of assets with unknown values.
What are the sub-prime mortgages worth?
Worst case: 50% of face value.
Bottom line: The government is saving the individual, the home-buyer. The plans are aimed at making the ECONOMY work.
The government is letting institutions like Bear and AIG go down slowly. To keep order in the economy. Obviously the complete and swift failure of Lehman was no threat to the economic order.
Federal Money is providing LIQUIDITY, which is another way of saying "orderly markets."
But as I said in an earlier message, it is IMPOSSIBLE to "regulate" the risk out of markets.
Wall Street acknowledges the rules and regulations that exist and then creates LEGAL products that side-step the regulations.
Perhaps Congress will issue a report on the current crisis. It will contain an admission that no laws were broken. And it will state that a key component of the problems resulted from a lack of collateral (downpayment) supplied by home-buyers.
Speak truth, we sure aint got time for anything else.
Sending you love, my friend.
I knew you'd be talking economy, you didn't let a brother down
This whole thing is so complicated. But why would anyone believe mccain when that guy is his economic advisor?
AIG Holders Push to Pay Off Loan
By LIAM PLEVEN
Major shareholders are pursuing an effort to try to help pay off the federal government's loan to American International Group Inc. in time to avoid having Washington take an 80% stake in the company, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Hurdles to these shareholders' efforts could be high, as they and other investors they may attract would have to put up significant sums.
This week, the government agreed to lend AIG up to $85 billion to help it avoid possible bankruptcy, in exchange for a right to take a controlling stake in the giant insurance conglomerate.
The shareholder effort is aimed at trying to make sure the government gets paid back quickly, so that it won't need to take the stake, the person said. That goal could be accomplished not only through asset sales that the company is planning but also possibly through investments in AIG from large investors, such as sovereign wealth funds.
The approach could be more beneficial to existing shareholders than the government deal, because it would inject capital in exchange for the equity.
In the government arrangement, the government would get equity in exchange for a loan.
Edward Liddy, named AIG's CEO this week as part of the arrangement with the government, said he had no knowledge of the shareholder effort and had no comment.
AIG shareholders have suffered severely thanks largely to losses linked to the mortgage market. The stock has fallen more than 90 percent this year.
The government's acquisition is subject to shareholder approval, as AIG noted Thursday in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The filing did not disclose when a vote might take place.
so thats why people havent been coming into the restaurant. they re hanging on tight what they got lol
shit is about to hit...let us pray.
You ain't never lied.
Just passing thru to say what up. Have a good weekend!
Sage advice from. You inspire me to start reading my subscription to The Economist more often. These are precarious times indeed. Its funny to because the financial institutions that are regulated are insulated from this current ominous state of affairs.
-Enzo, Pimpin Pens
B.S. Economics Florida State University
T, i feel that this is one of the greatest posts you have ever wrote...man you put it down, Emmy style, kudo's to you!
Great post. And timely.
"McCain is stupid, for picking a man who is the VP of a bank with 12 billion in losses last year as his top economic advisor and because McCain himself say he is learning economics by reading Alan Greenspan’s book"
I totally agree with you. I wish MSM would publicly scrutinize *this* a lot more instead of trying so hard to tie Obama to Franklin Raines when it's been shown that he has no direct connection to him and did not seek him out for advice.
I really think that Gramm would end up having a place in a McCain administration--and that really scares the shit out of me.
It amazes me that there isn't greater outrage about the bailouts from us John and Jane Taxpayers. That is SO not fair. They get to play wrong and hard, enjoy the fruits of their greed, and then we bail out their asses when they fuck it all up. I'm beyond mad--but I guess there isn't a whole lot that can be done except to bend over and take another one for the team. Like you said, the band-aid fixes have GOT to end. They need to get to the root of this mess and clamp down on these greedy idiots.
Kin'shar
im trying to figure it out as we speak
YaBoy Po
im down after i protect my loot and you should gas shortages will start soon
4GOTTEN1
hey i sent u an email, did u get it
Mberenis
LOL
tla
the ring of fire, me likes that
Siditty
i could not have said this better, and i agree on the arms and about main street - thats where the help is required
James Tubman
greedy is an understamnet bastards is accurate
Darius T. Williams
i know u do and food period, i still got tyhe taste of Chi post u wrote in my brain
Curious
im just saying i wont get bailed out if i make STUPID INVESTMENT DECISIONS
remorji
THANKS FOLK
Regina
THANK U BUT I AM FAR FROM DANGEROUS LOL
Jazzy
I NOTICED TODAQY MCCAIN IS DOING ALL I SAID WHEN I WROTE sLACKING IN YOUR MACKING NOW ....WONDER IF HE READS ME?
ms.kimba412
THANKS HON FOR THE DRIVE BY TOO, PLS RETURN
VertigoVirgo
woman did u stop writing on me, and been ok and u?
no_slappz
likie i said, yep china making loot and truth b told as i told curious, u and me wont be bailed out for making dumb investment decisions and thats what we doing in summary
ViolentLove
thanks sister
blackandmarried
LOL i tried not to folk, i really did.
Seattle Slim
now thats the joke of the century so far
MsPuddin
pray and save
Kitty
thanks hon
Pimpin' Pens
yea bruh, put that economic degre to work for us all
Mizrepresent
LOL me emmy-esque
MacDaddy
thanks home slice with the top shelf music game
Tamra
i hop gramm is no where around my loot.
Preach on,sir...preach on !
T.
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